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  • Confidence Bootcamp
    • My learning
    • Intro to experimentation
      • Introduction
      • Lesson 1: Why you should experiment
      • Lesson 2: Experiment hypothesis
      • Lesson 3: Success and guardrail metrics
      • Lesson 4: Success metrics
      • Lesson 5: Set up your experiment
      • Lesson 6: Calculation frequency
      • Lesson 7: Target audience
      • Lesson 8: Sample size
      • Lesson 9: Quality assurance
      • Lesson 10: Run your experiment
      • Lesson 11: Evaluate your experiment and make a decision
      • Lesson 12: A/B tests and rollouts
      • Course wrap up
    • Intro to metrics
      • Introduction
      • Lesson 1: What is a metric?
      • Lesson 2: Metric roles
      • Lesson 3: Time considerations
      • Lesson 4: Capturing behavior
      • Lesson 5: Strategic metrics
      • Lesson 6: Interpretability
      • Lesson 7: Feasibility and sensitivity
      • Lesson 8: Variance reduction
      • Lesson 9: Select metrics
      • Lesson 10: Segment-level analysis
      • Course wrap up
    • Scientific product development
      • Introduction
      • Lesson 1: Why you should experiment
      • Lesson 2: The scientific method
      • Lesson 3: Randomized controlled trials
      • Lesson 4: Experiment hypothesis
      • Lesson 5: Case study
        • Case study
        • Answers to case study
      • Lesson 6: Why do we need statistics?
      • Lesson 7: Success metrics
      • Lesson 8: Detectable effects and sample size
      • Lesson 9: Make a decision
      • Course wrap up
    • A primer on hypothesis testing
      • Introduction
      • Lesson 1: Introduction to hypothesis testing
      • Lesson 2: True vs estimated effects
      • Lesson 3: Sampling distribution of the difference-in-means estimator
      • Lesson 4: Z-tests and how to reject the null hypothesis
      • Lesson 5: False postive rate and alpha
      • Lesson 6: True positive rate, MDE, and power
      • Course wrap up
    • Intro to Feature Flags
      • Introduction
      • Lesson 1: What is a feature flag?
      • Lesson 2: Lifecycle of a feature flag
      • Lesson 3: Clients
      • Lesson 4: Evaluation context and targeting
    • Sample size calculation - I
      • Introduction
      • Lesson 1: What is the required sample size?
      • Lesson 2: Alpha and power
      • Lesson 3: Baseline mean and variance
      • Lesson 4: Sample size playground - I
    • Sample size calculation - II
      • Introduction
      • Lesson 1: Multi-metric decision making
      • Lesson 2: Number of success metrics
      • Lesson 3: Number of guardrail metrics
      • Lesson 4: Number of comparisons
      • Lesson 5: Sample size playground - II
    • Sample size calculation - III
      • Introduction
      • Lesson 1: Binary metrics
      • Lesson 2: Treatment group proportions
      • Lesson 3: Variance reduction
      • Lesson 4: Sequential testing and sample size
      • Lesson 5: Sample size playground - III
    • Advance your experimentation
      • Introduction
      • Lesson 1: Guardrail metrics with non-inferiority margins
      • Lesson 2: Choose evaluation frequency
      • Lesson 3: Metrics' roles in experiments
      • Lesson 4: Cumulative holdback evaluations
    • Experimentation culture
      • Introduction
      • Lesson 1: Onboarding into experimentation
      • Lesson 2: Empowering experimentation champions
      • Lesson 3: Sustaining the experimentation culture
    • Videos

Welcome to Interpreting experiment results

Interpreting experiment results is an asynchronous, self-paced course that teaches you how to read and understand the results page in Confidence. By the end of this course, you will be able to look at any experiment results page and know exactly what every number, label, and recommendation means, and what to do with that information.

The course is designed to be accessible regardless of your background or role. You do not need a statistics degree to follow along. Where the details matter, this course explains them in plain language and flags where you can dig deeper if you want to.

Some things may look different from other tools you have used. Where Confidence does things its own way, the approach is grounded in years of iteration and original research.

Note

There are quiz questions throughout the course to help you check your understanding of the material. Complete each lesson's questions to track your progress.

Before you begin

This course works best if you have run at least one experiment in Confidence, or have followed the A/B test quickstart. Having a concrete experiment in mind as you go through the lessons will help the concepts click.

Lessons

This course consists of the following lessons:

Lesson 1: The anatomy of the results page

Get oriented on the three sections of the results page and understand the basic logic connecting them.

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Lesson 2: The Spotlight

Understand the overall recommendation (Ship, Continue, End, or Abort) and what drives each one.

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Lesson 3: Means and relative effects

Understand what the control variant and treatment variant means represent, and why effects are shown as relative percentages.

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Lesson 4: Confidence intervals and precision

Learn what confidence intervals are, how to read them, and why their width tells you how precisely the effect has been measured.

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Lesson 5: Significance for success metrics

Understand what 'significant' and 'not significant' mean for success metrics, and how the CI position determines the status.

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Lesson 6: Guardrail metrics and NIMs

Learn how guardrail metric status labels work, what a non-inferiority margin is, and why it gives stronger evidence of safety.

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Lesson 7: Health checks and the SRM

Learn how Confidence verifies that your experiment is trustworthy, and what to do when a health check fails.

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Lesson 8: Variance reduction

Understand why the means shown in results may differ slightly from raw averages, and how to interpret them correctly.

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Lesson 9: Sequential and non-sequential tests

Learn when you can trust the results you see, and what your choice of evaluation strategy means for your experiment.

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Lesson 10: Exploratory analysis

Learn how to use explorations to learn more from your experiment without drawing false conclusions.

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Lesson 11: The winner's curse

Learn about the winner's curse, why significant results from underpowered experiments tend to overestimate the true effect, and how to use confidence interval precision as a practical safeguard.

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  1. Before you begin

  2. Lessons